Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.009501 0.010731 0.012060 0.013605 0.015351 0.017264 0.019520
2025-11-30 0.007675 0.009398 0.011416 0.013958 0.017078 0.020784 0.025531
2025-12-07 0.006320 0.008176 0.010474 0.013532 0.017501 0.022489 0.029247
2025-12-14 0.005444 0.007366 0.009856 0.013321 0.018031 0.024225 0.033021
2025-12-21 0.004712 0.006628 0.009207 0.012941 0.018221 0.025447 0.036131
2025-12-28 0.004390 0.006396 0.009191 0.013382 0.019527 0.028244 0.041614
2026-01-04 0.004068 0.006118 0.009067 0.013633 0.020553 0.030696 0.046785
2026-01-11 0.003811 0.005904 0.009004 0.013949 0.021676 0.033352 0.052461
2026-01-18 0.003487 0.005550 0.008693 0.013847 0.022131 0.035011 0.056712
2026-01-25 0.003224 0.005267 0.008459 0.013831 0.022703 0.036870 0.061409
2026-02-01 0.002949 0.004936 0.008117 0.013606 0.022902 0.038127 0.065195
2026-02-08 0.002772 0.004749 0.007990 0.013714 0.023649 0.040323 0.070721
2026-02-15 0.002561 0.004490 0.007726 0.013579 0.023988 0.041888 0.075348
2026-02-22 0.002448 0.004392 0.007727 0.013903 0.025151 0.044964 0.082931
2026-03-01 0.002226 0.004080 0.007330 0.013480 0.024938 0.045580 0.086070
2026-03-08 0.002059 0.003853 0.007064 0.013269 0.025085 0.046843 0.090498
2026-03-15 0.001885 0.003597 0.006724 0.012890 0.024881 0.047429 0.093665
2026-03-22 0.001836 0.003575 0.006813 0.013330 0.026270 0.051121 0.103200
2026-03-29 0.001766 0.003505 0.006806 0.013580 0.027306 0.054205 0.111776
2026-04-05 0.001709 0.003455 0.006831 0.013895 0.028491 0.057669 0.121414
2026-04-12 0.001608 0.003309 0.006658 0.013793 0.028818 0.059426 0.127628
2026-04-19 0.001524 0.003192 0.006532 0.013777 0.029319 0.061573 0.134844
2026-04-26 0.001426 0.003035 0.006315 0.013553 0.029357 0.062750 0.140041